The most recent Nevada poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by almost 6 percentage points. This lead is the biggest for any Democrat in a presidential poll among Nevadans this election cycle. Harris seems to have closed the gap between Trump and Biden, who had not been ahead of Trump in any public poll in Nevada since October 2023.
The poll, conducted by Decipher Ai’s David Wolfson, sampled 991 likely voters in Nevada from August 3-5. The margin of error for the presidential race is 3 percentage points and between 6-7 percentage points for House races. Harris is leading with 49.2 percent support, while Trump has 43.6 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. only received 3.9 percent of the vote.
Although Harris’ lead in the poll may be seen as an outlier, it is reminiscent of Biden’s position in the 2020 election cycle. The poll also found that Nevada’s three Democratic House incumbents are leading in their re-election races, with Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) facing a tighter contest than usual.
In Southern Nevada, Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV), Susie Lee (D-NV), and Steven Horsford (D-NV) are leading by margins close to the margins of error for their districts. Lee had the closest race in 2022, winning by 4 percentage points. Horsford is currently in a tight race, leading by 4.3 percentage points over former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee.
The poll suggests that there is an opportunity for Republicans to flip Horsford’s district, as Democratic polling advantages reflect the lack of investment by national Republicans in these races. In Congressional District 3, Susie Lee has a 6.1 percentage point advantage over her opponent Drew Johnson. In Congressional District 1, Dina Titus is leading by 5.7 percentage points in a rematch with her 2022 Republican opponent Mark Robertson.
Rep. Mark Amodei is facing a closer contest than usual in his Northern Nevada-based district, leading by just 4.4 percentage points over independent Greg Kidd. The poll was conducted before recent events that could impact the race, but the results indicate a warning sign for Amodei.
Overall, the poll provides insights into the current political landscape in Nevada, with Democrats leading in both the presidential and House races. However, caution is advised in interpreting the results too closely, as the political landscape can shift leading up to the election.
