In basic economics classes, students learn about stated and demonstrated preferences. Stated preferences are what people say they like, while demonstrated preferences are what people actually do when faced with choices.
Since Trump became president in 2016, many have debated whether he was elected because of his personality or in spite of it. How did a party that chose Mitt Romney in 2012 end up nominating Trump? And how did he win the presidency?
Some say voters preferred Trump’s bold style of politics, while others believe they simply voted against Hillary Clinton. In the 2024 primary election, Nevada Republicans had the chance to show which explanation they favored.
On one side were candidates supported by Robert Beadles, who brought Trump’s combative approach to local politics. On the other side were candidates endorsed by Gov. Joe Lombardo, who compared choosing politicians to selecting household appliances – you want them to do their job well, not fight.
Despite the perception that Republicans prefer aggressive candidates, Lombardo’s endorsed candidates did well in the primary races. Even nonpartisan races saw Beadles’ candidates losing by significant margins, showing a lack of enthusiasm for Trump-like figures.
While primary results don’t predict general election outcomes, it’s interesting to see Republican voters moving away from Trump-like candidates. This shift raises questions about how much support Trump can expect from his own party in the future.
